Spatial and Temporal Variations of Monthly Maximum and Minimum Temperatures in South Africa from 1958 to 2020

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Department of Natural Resources, Faculty of African Postgraduate Studies, Cairo University, Giza,12613, Egypt

2 Department of Geography, Faculty of African Postgraduate Studies, Cairo University, Giza,12613, Egypt.

Abstract

Since the 20th century, climate change has been one of the most pressing and widespread issues that human societies on Earth have faced. South Africa’s susceptibility to climate variability and change is considerably pronounced as a result of the nation's significant reliance on rain-fed agriculture and natural resources, elevated poverty rates, especially in rural regions, and a limited capacity for adaptation. To that end, trend analysis has been employed to inspect the change of maximum and minimum temperature in South Africa using 18 meteorological stations were used to gather monthly maximum and minimum temperature data. The long-term trends and changes in annual and seasonal maximum and minimum temperature series for all stations were examined. According to Mann-Kendall tests, there is a prevailing positive temperature trend over much of South Africa, with the rate of change ranging between 0.2-0.3 and 0.1-0.2 °C/decade for maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively. South Africa has already seen considerable temperature increases since the 1960s, with more marked increases across arid, inland areas of the country. The rate of temperature change has varied, with the highest rates of increase in the mid 1970s to early 1980s and again in the late 1990s to mid 2000s. Results of the study have led to the following main conclusions: (1) statistically significant increasing (warming) trends were found in mean maximum and minimum temperatures. (2) Statistically significant and the strongest warming trend showed up mainly in maximum and minimum temperatures at all stations in all seasons; (3) Increasing trends in maximum temperatures were not as strong as in mean minimum temperatures at all stations; (4) Warmer than long-term average temperature conditions in the series was evident especially after the year 2020; (5) Also, the maximum temperature increase (0.3°C/decade) is greater than minimum temperature (0.2 °C/decade). A more definite trend of warming occurs in winter and autumn than summer and spring of maximum temperature. Moreover, the results show that the warm climate regions in South Africa are warming at a higher rate than cold climate regions.

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History

  • Receive Date: 27 July 2023
  • Revise Date: 12 October 2023
  • Accept Date: 19 October 2023

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